The identifiability analysis of linear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) systems is a necessary prerequisite for making reliable causal inferences about these systems. While identifiability has been well studied in scenarios where the system is fully observable, the conditions for identifiability remain unexplored when latent variables interact with the system. This paper aims to address this gap by presenting a systematic analysis of identifiability in linear ODE systems incorporating hidden confounders. Specifically, we investigate two cases of such systems.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning has recently shown great promise as an approach to networked system control. Arguably, one of the most difficult and important tasks for which large scale networked system control is applicable is common-pool resource management. Crucial common-pool resources include arable land, fresh water, wetlands, wildlife, fish stock, forests and the atmosphere, of which proper management is related to some of society's greatest challenges such as food security, inequality and climate change. Here we take inspiration from a recent research program investigating the game-theoretic incentives of humans in social dilemma situations such as the well-known tragedy of the commons. However, instead of focusing on biologically evolved human-like agents, our concern is rather to better understand the learning and operating behaviour of engineered networked systems comprising general-purpose reinforcement learning agents, subject only to nonbiological constraints such as memory, computation and communication bandwidth. Harnessing tools from empirical game-theoretic analysis, we analyse the differences in resulting solution concepts that stem from employing different information structures in the design of networked multi-agent systems. These information structures pertain to the type of information shared between agents as well as the employed communication protocol and network topology. Our analysis contributes new insights into the consequences associated with certain design choices and provides an additional dimension of comparison between systems beyond efficiency, robustness, scalability and mean control performance.

Time series anomaly detection is challenging due to the complexity and variety of patterns that can occur. One major difficulty arises from modeling time-dependent relationships to find contextual anomalies while maintaining detection accuracy for point anomalies. In this paper, we propose a framework for unsupervised time series anomaly detection that utilizes point-based and sequence-based reconstruction models. The point-based model attempts to quantify point anomalies, and the sequence-based model attempts to quantify both point and contextual anomalies. Under the formulation that the observed time point is a two-stage deviated value from a nominal time point, we introduce a nominality score calculated from the ratio of a combined value of the reconstruction errors. We derive an induced anomaly score by further integrating the nominality score and anomaly score, then theoretically prove the superiority of the induced anomaly score over the original anomaly score under certain conditions. Extensive studies conducted on several public datasets show that the proposed framework outperforms most state-of-the-art baselines for time series anomaly detection.

Robots can identify recyclable materials by recognizing patterns in colors, textures, shapes and logos. Ever wondered what happens to the recyclables you carefully sort and place in your bin? For years, recycling has been a crucial part of our efforts to reduce waste and protect the environment. However, the recycling industry has faced significant challenges, from rising costs to labor shortages. But what if technology could transform this process, making recycling faster, more efficient and actually effective?

Gruesome pictures have revealed the shocking impact microplastics could be having on your appearance -- and making you look decrepit and older. Microplastics are now in almost everything we touch, from food and clothing to water, kitchenware and household items - and every American is now thought to have microplastics in their bodies. Now, a UK recycling company has tried to capture the impact these toxins could be having on the skin. In a release, they used AI to estimate how long-term exposure to microplastics at low, medium and high levels could impact a man and a woman's appearance. Mark Hall, a plastic waste expert at the business behind the report, said: 'It's clear to see there are many worrying signs of how this pollution might affect us.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is crucial for aligning large language models with human preferences. While recent research has focused on algorithmic improvements, the importance of prompt-data construction has been overlooked. This paper addresses this gap by exploring data-driven bottlenecks in RLHF performance scaling, particularly reward hacking and decreasing response diversity. We introduce a hybrid reward system combining reasoning task verifiers (RTV) and a generative reward model (GenRM) to mitigate reward hacking. We also propose a novel prompt-selection method, Pre-PPO, to maintain response diversity and enhance learning effectiveness. Additionally, we find that prioritizing mathematical and coding tasks early in RLHF training significantly improves performance. Experiments across two model sizes validate our methods' effectiveness and scalability. Results show that RTV is most resistant to reward hacking, followed by GenRM with ground truth, and then GenRM with SFT Best-of-N responses. Our strategies enable rapid capture of subtle task-specific distinctions, leading to substantial improvements in overall RLHF performance. This work highlights the importance of careful data construction and provides practical methods to overcome performance barriers in RLHF.

SHAP is one of the most popular local feature-attribution methods. Given a function f and an input x, it quantifies each feature's contribution to f(x). Recently, SHAP has been increasingly used for global insights: practitioners average the absolute SHAP values over many data points to compute global feature importance scores, which are then used to discard unimportant features. In this work, we investigate the soundness of this practice by asking whether small aggregate SHAP values necessarily imply that the corresponding feature does not affect the function. Unfortunately, the answer is no: even if the i-th SHAP value is 0 on the entire data support, there exist functions that clearly depend on Feature i. The issue is that computing SHAP values involves evaluating f on points outside of the data support, where f can be strategically designed to mask its dependence on Feature i. To address this, we propose to aggregate SHAP values over the extended support, which is the product of the marginals of the underlying distribution. With this modification, we show that a small aggregate SHAP value implies that we can safely discard the corresponding feature. We then extend our results to KernelSHAP, the most popular method to approximate SHAP values in practice. We show that if KernelSHAP is computed over the extended distribution, a small aggregate value justifies feature removal. This result holds independently of whether KernelSHAP accurately approximates true SHAP values, making it one of the first theoretical results to characterize the KernelSHAP algorithm itself. Our findings have both theoretical and practical implications. We introduce the Shapley Lie algebra, which offers algebraic insights that may enable a deeper investigation of SHAP and we show that randomly permuting each column of the data matrix enables safely discarding features based on aggregate SHAP and KernelSHAP values.

Long-term groundwater level (GWL) measurement is vital for effective policymaking and recharge estimation using annual maxima and minima. However, current methods prioritize short-term predictions and lack multi-year applicability, limiting their utility. Moreover, sparse in-situ measurements lead to reliance on low-resolution satellite data like GLDAS as the ground truth for Machine Learning models, further constraining accuracy. To overcome these challenges, we first develop an ML model to mitigate data gaps, achieving $R^2$ scores of 0.855 and 0.963 for maximum and minimum GWL predictions, respectively. Subsequently, using these predictions and well observations as ground truth, we train an Upsampling Model that uses low-resolution (25 km) GLDAS data as input to produce high-resolution (2 km) GWLs, achieving an excellent $R^2$ score of 0.96. Our approach successfully upscales GLDAS data for 2003-2024, allowing high-resolution recharge estimations and revealing critical trends for proactive resource management. Our method allows upsampling of groundwater storage (GWS) from GLDAS to high-resolution GWLs for any points independently of officially curated piezometer data, making it a valuable tool for decision-making.

The identifiability analysis of linear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) systems is a necessary prerequisite for making reliable causal inferences about these systems. While identifiability has been well studied in scenarios where the system is fully observable, the conditions for identifiability remain unexplored when latent variables interact with the system. This paper aims to address this gap by presenting a systematic analysis of identifiability in linear ODE systems incorporating hidden confounders. Specifically, we investigate two cases of such systems.

The design, operations, and management of water distribution systems (WDS) involve complex mathematical models. These models are continually improving due to computational advancements, leading to better decision-making and more efficient WDS management. However, the significant time and effort required for modeling, programming, and analyzing results remain substantial challenges. Another issue is the professional burden, which confines the interaction with models, databases, and other sophisticated tools to a small group of experts, thereby causing non-technical stakeholders to depend on these experts or make decisions without modeling support. Furthermore, explaining model results is challenging even for experts, as it is often unclear which conditions cause the model to reach a certain state or recommend a specific policy. The recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) open doors for a new stage in human-model interaction. This study proposes a framework of plain language interactions with hydraulic and water quality models based on LLM-EPANET architecture. This framework is tested with increasing levels of complexity of queries to study the ability of LLMs to interact with WDS models, run complex simulations, and report simulation results. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated across several categories of queries and hyper-parameter configurations, demonstrating its potential to enhance decision-making processes in WDS management.